When Will Colonial Pipeline Open Up Again
Washington's Newest Worry: The Dangers of Cornering Putin
Surprised by the speed at which sanctions have been poured on Russia, Biden'southward elevation aides doubtable that Putin's reaction will exist to double down and lash out — and perhaps expand the war.
WASHINGTON — Senior White House officials designing the strategy to confront Russian federation take begun quietly debating a new concern: that the avalanche of sanctions directed at Moscow, which have gained speed faster than they imagined, is cornering President Vladimir V. Putin and may prompt him to lash out, perhaps expanding the conflict beyond Ukraine.
In Situation Room meetings in recent days, the effect has come upwardly repeatedly, according to three officials. Mr. Putin's tendency, American intelligence officials have told the White House and Congress, is to double downwardly when he feels trapped by his ain overreach. So they have described a series of possible reactions, ranging from indiscriminate shelling of Ukrainian cities to recoup for the early mistakes made by his invading forcefulness, to cyberattacks directed at the American financial system, to more nuclear threats and perchance moves to accept the war beyond Ukraine's borders.
The debate over Mr. Putin's adjacent moves is linked to an urgent re-examination by intelligence agencies of the Russian leader's mental state, and whether his ambitions and appetite for risk have been contradistinct by two years of Covid isolation.
Those concerns accelerated after Mr. Putin's guild on Sunday to place the country'southward strategic nuclear weapons on a "combat gear up" alert to respond to the Due west's "aggressive comments." (In the ensuing days, however, national security officials say they accept seen piddling evidence on the ground that Russia's nuclear forces have actually moved to a different country of readiness.)
It was a sign of the depth of American business organisation that Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin 3 announced Wednesday that he was canceling a previously scheduled Minuteman nuclear missile test, to avoid escalating direct challenges to Moscow or giving Mr. Putin an excuse to once again invoke the power of the land's nuclear armory.
"We did not take this decision lightly, just instead, to demonstrate that we are a responsible nuclear power," John F. Kirby, the Pentagon press secretarial assistant, said Wednesday. "We recognize at this moment of tension how critical it is that both the Us and Russia conduct in heed the risk of miscalculation, and have steps to reduce those risks."
All the same, Mr. Putin'south reaction to the initial wave of sanctions has provoked a range of concerns that one senior official called the "Cornered Putin Problem." Those concerns center on a series of recent announcements: the pullout of oil companies like Exxon and Shell from developing Russian federation's oil fields, the moves against Russia'due south central banking company that sent the ruble plunging, and Germany's surprise announcement that it would drop its ban on sending lethal weapons to the Ukrainian forces and ramp upwardly its defense spending.
Simply beyond canceling the missile examination, there is no evidence that the Usa is because steps to reduce tensions, and a senior official said in that location was no interest in bankroll off sanctions.
"Quite the opposite,'' said the official, who, similar other American officials interviewed for this story, asked for anonymity to talk over the internal debates among Mr. Biden'due south advisers.
In fact, President Biden appear expanded sanctions on Thursday, aimed at Russia'southward oligarch class. Many of those named — including Dmitri S. Peskov, Mr. Putin'south spokesman and ane of his close directorate — rank among his nigh influential defenders and the beneficiaries of the organization he has created.
Mr. Biden, reading a prepared statement and taking no questions, said the sanctions accept had "a profound impact already."
A few hours after he spoke, Southward&P dropped Russian federation'southward credit rating to CCC-, the credit-rating bureau said in a statement. That is far below the junk bond levels Russia was ranked at a few days after the invasion, and only ii notches above a warning that the country was going into default.
It suggested that Mr. Putin's effort to "sanctions-proof" his economy had largely failed. And at least for now, at that place is no discernible off-ramp for the Russian leader short of declaring a cease-fire or pulling back his forces — steps he has so far shown no interest in taking.
At a news briefing at the White Business firm on Thursday afternoon, Jen Psaki, the printing secretary, said that she knew of no efforts to show Mr. Putin a way out. "I call up right in this moment, they are marching toward Kyiv with a convoy and continuing to take reportedly barbaric steps against the people of Ukraine. So now is not the moment where we are offering options for reducing sanctions."
Yet a senior Land Department official, asked nigh the debates inside the administration on the risks alee, said there were nuances in the administration's approach that point to possible outs for the Russian leader.
Mr. Biden's policy, the official said, was not ane of seeking authorities modify in Russia. The idea, he said, was to influence Mr. Putin's actions, not his grip on power. And the sanctions, the official noted, were designed not as a punishment, but equally leverage to end the state of war. They will escalate if Mr. Putin escalates, the official said. But the administration would calibrate its sanctions, and perhaps reduce them, if Mr. Putin begins to de-escalate.
And the official said that considering Mr. Putin has at present exerted such control over Russian media, closing downward the terminal vestiges of independent news organizations, he could spin some kind of de-escalation into a victory.
Yet that hope collides with the assessments of Mr. Putin's instincts, many of which are based on open up, unclassified observations.
William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, was an early advocate of the view that the Russian leader planned to invade, and was non massing troops around Ukraine simply to gain leverage in some kind of bargaining game.
"I would never underestimate President Putin's risk appetite on Ukraine," Mr. Burns, a sometime American ambassador to Moscow, who has dealt with Mr. Putin for more than than ii decades, said in December.
Mr. Putin'due south views on Ukraine are fiercely held. He seems unlikely to accept any outcome that does not achieve his goal of bringing Ukraine closer to the Russian fold. And, especially afterwards the Russian armed services'south poor performance in the first week of the war, he may be concerned that any whiff of failure could weaken his hold on power.
His strategy in coming weeks, another American officials take warned in closed meetings since the crisis accelerated, could be to redirect the disharmonize toward Washington, hoping to distract from the Russian forces' attacks on civilians in Ukraine and rouse a nationalistic response to the actions of a longtime adversary.
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If Mr. Putin wants to strike at the American financial organization, as Mr. Biden has struck at his, he has merely one significant pathway in: his well-trained army of hackers, and an adjacent group of criminal ransomware operators, some of whom accept publicly pledged to help him in his battle.
Tatyana Bolton, the policy director for cybersecurity and emerging threats at the R Street Establish, expressed confidence on Thursday that the financial manufacture was prepare.
"The J.P. Morgans of the world spend more on cybersecurity than many government agencies,'' said Ms. Bolton, a quondam senior official in the Department of Homeland Security whose family immigrated from Russian federation.
But she was concerned about the possibility that Mr. Putin would finally activate "pre-positioned malware in the energy sector, as a means of getting dorsum at the United States."
Members of Congress accept as well raised concerns that Mr. Putin could unleash Moscow'due south network of criminal hackers, who have conducted ransomware attacks that have shut downwardly hospitals, meat processing plants and the Colonial Pipeline network that carried most half of the gasoline, diesel and jet fuel on the East Coast.
"If the state of affairs escalates further, I think nosotros are going to see Russian cyberattacks against our critical infrastructure," said Representative Mike Gallagher, Republican of Wisconsin, a fellow member of the Business firm Intelligence Committee who served as co-chairman of an influential cyberspace commission.
Another possibility is that Mr. Putin will threaten to push further into Moldova or Georgia, which, like Ukraine, are not members of NATO — and thus territory that the American and NATO forces would not enter. Secretary of Land Antony J. Blinken is making Moldova one of his stops on a reassurance tour that began on Th.
In that location are larger worries, involving potential nuclear threats. Last Sunday, as the fighting accelerated, Belarus passed a plebiscite that amended its constitution to let for nuclear weapons to exist based, over again, on its territory. American officials are expecting that President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko may well ask Mr. Putin to place tactical weapons in his country, where they would be closer to European capitals. And Mr. Putin has shown, twice this calendar week, that he is gear up to remind the world of the powers of his arsenal.
But the side by side move for Mr. Putin is likely to farther intensify his operations in Ukraine, which would almost certainly outcome in more civilian casualties and devastation.
"It wasn't a cakewalk for Putin and now he has no option only to double down," said Beth Sanner, a quondam top intelligence official. "This is what autocrats do. Yous cannot walk abroad or you await weak."
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Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/us/politics/biden-putin-sanctions.html
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